ALFA 2013 Conference & Expo Session: The Demographic Dip: An Excuse or Imposing Reality?
Presented: Thursday, May 9 | 8:30 AM – 10:00 AM
The U.S. Census reports a dip in the birthrate between 1925 and 1945, which has resulted in a decline in the number of adults who are currently ages 68 to 88 years old. Often referred to as the Silent Generation, this demographic group of 52.5 million people is smaller than the GI Generation that preceded it and is overshadowed by the 78.2 Baby Boomers who follow. What does this demographic dip mean for senior living operators, and is the business seeing an impact from it today? Or, is a smaller population simply an easy excuse to explain why occupancy may be down in a community?
This session will critically evaluate the demographic dip and how applicable it is to the products and services offered under the senior living umbrella—independent living, assisted living, and memory care. If it is a reality, what are signs of the dip? And what strategies can the senior living business leverage to continue to thrive to ensure future generations will have access to a plethora of senior living options?
>> Faculty: Irving Stackpole RRT, M.Ed., President, Stackpole and Associates || Larry Rouvelas, Partner, Senior Housing Analytics || Shamim Wu, SVP of Sales, Holiday Retirement || Jamison Gosselin, SVP of Marketing & Communications, ALFA
Participant Perspective“The speakers during the Demographic Dip session provided a sobering view of what they feel the senior living and assisted livng industry will be facing over the next 7 to 12 years. They spoke of our industry being in the middle of a stagnant or declining market, depending on the local market. The Demographic Dip in a large segment of our older adults population due to the Birth Dearth that occurred from 1925 through 1945 is one of the reasons why. It will be another 15 to 20 years before the Baby Boomers start to hit the ages where they are likely to move into senior living and assisted living. Also, the increase in the average age of residents and in the acuity needs of residents has altered the perception of senior living and assisted living. Affordability will be an additional issue. At the same time, we will see significant expansion in supply over the next five years. There are a lot of deals in the pipeline and ready to pop. There is a staggering amount of capital waiting to be placed somewhere. There is huge interest in Memory Care. They are banking on pretty significant demand side expansion during a period when occupancy rates are down and demand is likely to decline or remain stagnant. The characteristics of the winners will include being far more efficient, offering higher value at a lower price, and innovation”. -Rick Banas, Vice President at BMA Management, Ltd. |
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